buyers

Jul 23 2022

What the housing market correction means to you

I’m sure you’ve heard about what experts are calling a housing market “correction.” This post offers some explanation, reassurance and advice. In fact, it’s organized in sections under those 3 headings. Jump down with your cursor if you want to go straight to “Advice.”

Explanation

The market shift has been triggered by a spike in mortgage interest rates to almost 6%, about double the rate in January. Combined with steeply rising home prices in the pandemic years, rising rates have dampened demand. Courtesy of Altos Research, here are key signs of the shift in the Portland Metro market over the past 3 months:

Speed of sales has slowed, with median days on market doubling from 14 to 28.
Listings seeing price reductions have almost doubled from 23 to 44%.
A gauge of the balance between supply and demand, the Market Action Index (“MAI”) has dropped by almost one-third from 93 to 64, with 30 and below defined as a buyer’s market.

The Regional Multiple Listing Service (RMLS) reported a doubling of inventory from 0.7 months in March to 1.4 months in June, a level not seen for 2 years. RMLS also reported slight declines in median (-0.9%) and average (-2.5%) sale price from May to June.

Reassurance

Mind you, it’s still a strong seller’s market in the Metro area, since a balanced market is defined as 4-6 months of inventory and our current MAI is well above 30. Furthermore, slowdowns in the speed of sales and appreciation are healthy trends. When sales are lightning quick, it’s harder for buyers to make thoughtful, rational decisions. And when home prices far surpass income gains – as they have in Portland and across the country – we approach breaking points for affordability and sustainability.

That said, a more serious concern is the risk of a recession over the next year or two. Most experts predict a decline in home values if an economic downturn comes to pass. Thankfully, Portland faces less risk on that count than others metro markets. On average, says Moody Analytics, American homes are overvalued by 23%. Portland is just one point above the average at 24%. Boise takes the top spot in the country at 72%, with Austin at 66%, Phoenix at 54% and Denver at 43%. “Bubbly” markets like these will likely see the biggest price drops if the economy goes into a recession.

Advice

The advice in this section is organized by categories of real estate plans.

If you’re in your forever home or won’t move for several years, you can ride out a possible downturn and don’t have to worry about a temporary decline in your home’s value or selling in a real estate cycle trough. Like the stock market, housing has always bounced back and averaged over 4% in annual appreciation historically.
If you’re selling your home over the coming months, expect to see more than one offer and go over list price only if it’s in excellent condition with standout renovations and staging. You’ll likely sell at list price if your home is in fair to good condition and priced right. If your home is overpriced and in fair to good condition, expect to sell after a price cut and at or above the average for days on market in your area.
If you plan to sell in a year or two, it’s worth seriously considering moving up your timeline or else pushing it out some years to avoid selling at or near a market low. This advice goes double if you’re a senior looking to maximize your equity cash out for retirement and/or exit the detached housing market for good.
If you plan to buy in the near term, you’ll likely see much less competition, have more time to decide to make an offer and may pay under initial asking price if the home has been on the market for more than a couple of weeks. Though sale prices may come down after you buy, the ongoing climb in inflation suggests that we may also see a continuing rise in interest and mortgage rates, which have a greater impact on your monthly payment than sale price.

On a final note, no one has a crystal ball – not the experts and certainly not me. But I’ll continue to track the market closely and post updates. Drop me a line if you have any questions or concerns.

Mar 26 2021

A realtor you know, like and trust? Watch Episode 11 of Homing in on Portland to hear the story of my calling!

Five aspects of my personality and history led me to real estate: 1) recovering global nomad, 2) serial volunteer, 3) diehard fan of interior design and architecture, 4) researcher, and 5) INFJ (aka “The Counselor”). Click the link below to hear my story. To cherry pick content, use this timed outline:

00:00 – 00:46 Intro

00:47 – 01:22 Global Nomad

01:23 – 02:39 Community volunteer

02:40 – 03:24 Fan of Interior design & architecture

03:25 – 04:51 Researcher

04:52 – 05:30 INFJ aka “The Counselor”

Dec 27 2020

Tis the season for…housing market forecasts! Whether you plan to buy, sell or stay put next year, watch Episodes 5 and 6 of Homing in on Portland to get the jump on the Metro market now

After a remarkable year despite the pandemic, what lies ahead for Portland’s housing market in 2021? Based on a review of some of the best research and forecasts, my 2-part market preview offers insights for homeowners planning to stay put as well as prospective buyers and sellers. Click the play buttons below to watch Episodes 5 and 6 of Homing in on Portland. Once you reach youtube, click the “Show More” links in the descriptions below the screens for timed outlines that enable you to cherry pick content.

Can I help you make real estate plans for 2021? Call or email me at (503) 705-5725 or catherinequoyeser@kw.com

Nov 19 2020

Are you planning to buy or sell a home in Cedar Mill or Cedar Hills? First take the temperature of these neighborhood markets with my quarterly newsletters tracking hot and cold prices, activity and speed!

As Oregon enters a new Coronavirus “freeze,” I’m more determined than ever to provide valuable content across all channels, including Facebook, LinkedIn, Instagram and this website. Public health concerns limit opportunities for face-to-face communication. But video can help to offset social distancing, offering a more personal and compelling alternative to the written word.

So going forward, my blog will do double duty as a vlog. Click the play button below to view Episode 1 of Homing in on Portland. (It’s short and sweet at just under 1.5 minutes.) Then subscribe to either or both of my quarterly newsletters by sending your name and email address to catherinequoyeser@kw.com

Nov 18 2016

In the biggest transactions of your life, the price has to be right — get your head into the game with home sales data

If you’re a fan of HGTV’s Property Brothers, you may wonder how realtor Drew Scott can travel around Canada and the US confidently telling sellers and buyers what homes – theirs or others – will sell for. After all, real estate markets are highly localized, not only from city to city but from neighborhood to neighborhood. How does Scott wrap his head around so many of them?

The answer in three words is comparative market analysis (CMA).

Whether you’re considering putting your home up for sale or making an offer on someone else’s, a CMA enables you to estimate its fair market value. Using data and digital applications from the local multiple listing service, your realtor can make side-by-side comparisons with homes that:

Closely resemble the property in question in size, features and quality;
Are located in the same area; and
Have sold recently, are pending, or currently on the market.

Dollar adjustments up or down are made to comparable properties (or “comps”) depending on how they differ from the subject property. For example:

Do they have more or less square footage?
Are they older or newer?
Have they been updated or remodeled?

And so on. Then the adjusted values of comps are averaged to estimate the fair market value of the subject property.

A CMA is both science and art. On one hand, the math and some selection principles are objective. For example, recently sold homes take priority over other types of comps. Since their sale prices are unknown, pending and active listings play a limited or supporting role in the process. And distressed homes should not be included. Fair market value assumes that both buyer and seller are knowledgeable, willing and unpressured. In a short sale or the sale of a foreclosed property, the seller doesn’t match that description.

On the other hand, a realtor’s intuition and local market knowledge also influence the selection of comps and the adjustment of their prices. It’s impossible to assign an objective dollar value to a view, a fireplace or a pool, for example. A realtor can look to appraisers for help, but there’s always an element of by-guess-and-by-gosh in the process.

That said, CMAs are an indispensable tool in buying or selling a home. They not only help you to get or pay a fair price, but also save time and stress. If you list your home at a fair price, you’re almost guaranteed to sell it faster (and for more money!) than if you ask too much. And if you’re confident in the value of a home that you want to buy or sell, you can approach negotiations with greater strength and peace of mind.