home values and prices

Sep 14 2018

Homing in on Portland’s neighborhood housing markets – They’re not easy to track but here’s your guide to Cedar Hills and a leg up on the rest of the west side

Portland Business Journal tracks the Metro area’s hottest zip codes quarterly

The Portland Business Journal has good news for lots of homeowners on Portland’s west side. The zip code 97229 (Forest Heights, Bethany, Cedar Mill) continues to be one of the Metro area’s hottest neighborhoods and 97225 (Cedar Hills & Raleigh Hills) broke into the ranks of the top 10 in the 1st quarter of this year.

I feel fortunate to have had a front row seat on the trends. I recently listed homes in the areas (two in Cedar Hills and one in Cedar Mill) and repped buyer clients in the sale of a 4^th in Cedar Mill. On average, the three listings sold in 2.3 days at 99.5 percent of asking price.

One of my Cedar Hills listings – a detached home at 11445 SW Lynnvale Dr

I aim to be a realtor of choice for area residents. So last month I created a quarterly newsletter on real estate activity in Cedar Hills. Market data is readily available for cities, towns and zip codes. But that’s not the case for neighborhoods, though they’re probably a more meaningful affiliation for most people.

So my work was cut out for me. I did my best to copy by hand the intricate boundaries of Cedar Hills from the map published by its homeowners association in a small search window on the Regional Multiple Listing Service (RMLS) website. I decided to include two small islands surrounded by the neighborhood (Forest Hills Village and Lynnridge) and two areas on its fringes (Belvidere and 2015-13 Partition Plat). I delivered or mailed Homing in on Cedar Hills to about 300 homeowners and linked it to a Facebook ad for digital access.

While working on the newsletter, I consulted Q2 neighborhood rankings for context. I wondered if 97225 had kept its spot among the top 10. But it proved impossible to track that trend because at the time Portland Business Journal published the so-called “Heat Index” – overall rankings based on equal weighting of volume of sales, speed of sales, and average sale price – only in the 1^st and 3^rd quarters of the year.

I reached out to Brandon Sawyer, the journalist on the hottest neighborhoods beat, to ask if he could share the info and to suggest that the Heat Index be published every quarter. He not only obliged on both counts, but wrote me into his August 21 article.

It turns out 97229 and 97225 slipped in the overall rankings, taking 6^th and 29^th place in Q2. Still, not bad. And 97225 took 7^th for average sale price – 2 places ahead of 97229.

If I can answer any questions about your neighborhood market or you’d like to “subscribe” to Homing in on Cedar Hills, dear readers, drop me a line (cquoyeser@bhhsnw.com/503-705-5725). The next issue comes out in October and I’m thinking of launching a counterpart for Cedar Mill.

My wall house listing at 11470 SW Lynnvale Dr

My Cedar Mill listing at 9883 NW Nottage Dr

Feb 01 2018

If it’s Tuesday this must be broker tour – An inside look at Portland’s best “Hemenway Colonial”

Every Tuesday, Portland Metro realtors open the doors of newly listed homes to other members of the trade. The idea is to attract agents with clients looking for a property like the one on tour, and to offer the chance to preview it. I don’t have any buyers with a $3.75 million ceiling at the moment, but I was excited to see 2728 SW Greenway Ave on this week’s west side tour list.

According to the Oregon Historical Society, the house is one of the finest examples of Roscoe Hemenway’s work. A graduate of Grant High and the U of O’s School of Architecture, Hemenway designed some 300 buildings over his 36-year career in Portland. He became best known for homes in the Colonial Revival style.

Dunthorpe neighborhood has the most “Hemenway Colonials.” But as I say, Portland Heights has the best. Built in 1951 on two-thirds of an acre, 2728 Greenway bears all the hallmarks of the style. Well-screened from the street by thick shrubs and tall trees, the façade – and its key architectural elements – are shown in the exterior photo.

Inside is just as grand. The house runs to over 12,000 square feet with 6 bedrooms, 5 full baths, 2 half baths, 3 stories, a home theater and library/bar on the top floor, a wing for live-in staff served by back stairs, and an elevator. The master suite is the size of an average 1-bedroom apartment (625 SF). The living room is the size of a small starter home (1000 SF). And at $58K per year, property taxes are also outsize – just $10K less than the average Portlander’s annual income. Utility costs must be formidable too. Newly required as part of the city’s effort to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions by 80 percent by 2050, the energy score for the house is 1 on a 10-point scale.

Dentil moulding & doorway pediment in the dining room

Back at my desk, I wondered who lives in such luxury. The owner is normally shown on the listing, but not in this case. So I looked up the tax report for the property in the Regional Multiple Listing Service. Turns out, he is just as prominent in today’s civic life as the architect was generations back.

Co-founder of the ad agency that began as a start-up and is now a global brand in its own right, Dan Wieden has called the property home since 1993, when he bought it for $1.225 million.

Industrial style with wildly creative touches – PDX office of W+K

It’s a far cry from the Wieden+Kennedy headquarters in the Pearl – a once abandoned 1908 warehouse with an atrium carved out of its middle, modern industrial finishes, and some wildly creative touches. But the two buildings have historic character (and preservation) in common. As the listing notes, the house has been “meticulously cared for.” Still a young 67, it may eventually join the warehouse on the National Register of Historic Places.

For now, 2728 Greenway needs a new owner. A 25-year appreciation of 300 percent seems reasonable, but it will be interesting to track the listing, which is on my RMLS watch list.

Postscript: As I was putting the finishing touches on this blog post, OregonLive published an article about the house. You can read Janet Eastman’s take here.

Jun 07 2017

When the value of home trumps the value of a house – how one couple adapted their West Slope beauty to the demands of aging in place

I regularly estimate home values for potential buyers and sellers, past clients, or homeowners tracking their net worth. The information helps them set goals and make decisions. On my side, the exercise allows me to expand my network and deepen my understanding of neighborhoods and market trends. So I was happy to estimate the value of a friend’s West Slope home recently.

Would you like to get an estimate of your home’s value? Just click here to make an online request.

Part of unincorporated Washington County, the neighborhood is bounded by Highway 26 to the north, Highway 217 to the west, Highway 10 to the south and a sloping boundary (no pun intended) to the east. Home to about 6500 people and over 3,000 housing units, the average West Slope household comes to just a little over 2 people. Yet most detached homes in the area are spacious and high-end, with a median sale price of $549K.

The “bite” out of the northeast corner of West Slope is covered by a Beaverton Neighborhood Association Committee though it’s a Portland address. Jurisdictional and administrative lines of unincorporated Washington County can be bewildering.

According to nextdoor.com, residents value the area’s friendly neighbors, quiet streets and large lots (good for kids and dogs), well-kept gardens and homes, proximity to shopping and downtown Portland, and mature trees. Walk scores are low but school ratings are high.

In many ways, my friend and her husband embody key trends in Portland and the country. Latecomers to the Silent Generation, they bought their 3300-square-foot home in the mid-80’s for just $110K. They have long since educated their children, paid off their mortgage, and retired. But they are part of a growing wave of seniors who are choosing to age in place.

Unlike many Baby Boomers, they are prudent financial planners. Despite their pensions, savings, and other assets, the husband continues to earn income by working part-time from home. So they don’t need the outsize equity in their home to fund their retirement.

Would you like to get an estimate of your home’s value? Just click here to make an online request.

Ridgewood Elementary gets top marks: a 9/10 on greatschools.org and 5/5 on schooldigger.com

I say ‘outsize’ with good reason. A walk through of their well-maintained 1960’s 2-story revealed:

A handsomely remodeled kitchen
4 bedrooms and 3 baths, with the master remodeled and one guest bath updated
A downstairs family room with a wet bar
Three balconies overlooking a grand sloping lot flanked by even grander Doug Firs

After a thorough review of recent sales and cancelled and active listings nearby, I estimated a 10-percent value range of $730-805K.

Improvements to the house have been driven by both aesthetic and practical considerations. For example, as part of last year’s kitchen remodel, doorways to the entry hall and the dining/living room were enlarged to improve flow and accommodate walkers or wheelchairs. And the footprint of the curbless master shower was enlarged along with the frameless glass door in keeping with universal design principles.

This Mid-Century Modern in West Slope sold for $825K last month after just 5 days on the market

Since the master bedroom and bathroom have always been located on the main floor and the garage is flush with the mud/laundry room, the house is now part of a very select group. Less than 4 percent of the US housing stock offers 3 key accessibility features needed for aging in place: single-floor living, no-step entries, and wide hall- and doorways.

But my friends didn’t leave it at that. They are riding the wave of another trend: the village movement. Originating in Boston’s Beacon Hill almost 20 years ago, it empowers seniors to age in place. The movement has since spread across the country. Villages NW acts as organizational and administrative hub to 6 spokes in the Portland Metro area. One of the 6, Viva Villages serves Beaverton, Cedar Hills, Cedar Mill, and West Slope.

In exchange for modest member fees, seniors get help from community volunteers with transportation, shopping, household chores, gardening, and light home repairs and maintenance. Still healthy and active, my friends provide volunteer services to Viva Villages members that they will one day receive.

Backyard giants are par for the course in West Slope

Getting to this point hasn’t been easy. Committed to living responsibly and within their needs, they have seriously considered downsizing more than once. Several years ago, they explored a home in a co-housing development on the west side. But they were put off by what they saw as the inefficiency and financial risk of consensual decision making not guided by professional expertise.

On another occasion, they toured almost every condo development on the west side but concluded that the lifestyle wasn’t for them. And a couple of years back, they made a cash offer on a detached house in a newer suburb 5 miles west of theirs but were outbid. When the first sale fell through, they couldn’t justify leaving the neighborhood and friends they love for a house that cost so much more than what they paid for theirs – yet lacked its character and forest-like setting as well as age-in-place features.

The challenges and choices they have faced are being played out across Portland and America – reinforcing the current inventory shortage. No one knows when “the great senior sell-off” will occur or what effects it will have. But for now, my friends are living resourcefully and well in their West Slope beauty.

Would you like to get an estimate of your home’s value? Just click here to make an online request.

Apr 30 2017

Taking the pulse of Forest Heights – this NW neighborhood offers splendid views, nature trails and family-friendly living for a price

Forest Heights has been much in the news lately. The April real estate issue of Portland Monthly identified it as the top spot for “blossoming families” on the west side. A couple of weeks back, the Portland Business Journal reported that the neighborhood (and the rest of 97229) retained its #1 spot for volume of home sales in the first quarter of 2017. And in an article on homes with courtyards, OregonLive profiled a 3-level Mediterranean style property in Forest Heights listed just south of $2 million.

Once home to Tualatin Indians and pioneer loggers, this planned community is less than 30 years old. While making way for over 1100 detached residential lots, almost 700 townhouses and condos, 160 apartments and a small town center anchored by Starbucks, the development has preserved the area’s best natural features: territorial views of the west hills and coastal range and a 6-mile network of woodland trails.

Forest Heights feels far away from the urban hustle. But its southern boundary along Cornell Rd is just 3 miles from Highway 26 and the Sunset Transit Center, which offers bus and light rail connections to downtown Portland and Hillsboro. The neighborhood is served by private weekday shuttle bus service to the Transit Center during commuting hours.

There’s no question that it’s a great place for kids. In addition to quiet streets and nature trails, Forest Heights has playgrounds, Mill Pond Park and a neighborhood elementary school that gets the highest possible rating on greatschools.org and schooldigger.com. The same is true of the high school (Lincoln) and middle school (West Sylvan) that serve the community. According to the 2010 Census, 30 percent of the population is under age 18 and 32 percent of households are families with children.

Forest Heights deserves its reputation for affluence as well as family-friendliness. The median sale price of a home is $631K. Detached properties can range over 8000 square feet and $2 million. But condos run as low as 1100 square feet and $300K. The relative affordability of multi-family housing is undercut by homeowner association fees, which start at about $350 per month.

If you want to move into the neighborhood, it may be a consolation that the price of admission has not risen nearly as fast as in other areas. The 5-year median price change was a modest 20 percent. If you’re a homeowner in the area, on the other hand, you may feel disappointed by that statistic.

Portland Business Journal attributes the high volume of sales in the area to empty nesters living in large detached homes. According to a search run today in the Regional Multiple Listing Service, there are 24 properties for sale in the neighborhood.

Field hockey practice at Forest Heights Elementary

Jan 17 2017

Pushing the price envelope in Cedar Hills – does it pay to have the best house in a popular neighborhood?

The short answer to whether it pays to have the best house in a popular neighborhood? It depends.

The question was prompted by an unusual Cedar Hills listing that hit the market just 11 days ago. Financed and newly built by a small development company in the area, the house has luxury features and finishes and over 3600 square feet, occupies a 0.37-acre lot on Butner Rd a short hop west of Cedar Hills Blvd, and is priced at $1.185 million. Click here for a video tour.

As a “location, location, location,” Cedar Hills has a lot to recommend it. Just southwest of the junction of Hwy 26 and 217, it’s close to downtown Portland and Hillsboro; is served by Beaverton schools and nearby MAX stations; and has good shopping, including New Seasons and an outpost of Powell’s Books.

Neighbors put Foothills Park to good use, even on a snowy Monday afternoon

Beyond these tangible assets, Cedar Hills has soul. Established in 1946, it features a large stock of mid-century ranch homes built around Foothills Park and Commonwealth Lake. Neighbors walk, run and rub shoulders on the lakeside trail. Also a hub, its recreation center offers classes, a pre-school program and fitness facilities. The homeowners association meets monthly and organizes an annual garage sale, clean-up and 4^th of July parade.

The red X marks the new build on Butner. The red circle marks the Lynnridge-Mayfield enclave.

So it’s no wonder demand for homes in the area is high. According to Redfin, the average property is just under 2000 square feet, has 3 bedrooms and 2 baths, and sells for $449,000 in just 14 days. The median sale-to-list price is 99.5 percent.

Of course, averages can be misleading – masking trends in different sub-areas and at different price points. Cedar Hills Blvd divides the neighborhood into eastern and western halves that are roughly equal in size but not in property values. Many homes in the higher-priced eastern half range well above the mid-400K average, with those near the crossroads of SW Lynnridge and Mayfield approaching or topping a million. This pricey enclave falls outside the boundaries served by the Cedar Hills homeowners association, but within what are commonly regarded as the boundaries of the area.

The Spring Ln record holder for list and sale price west of Cedar Hills Blvd

The new million-dollar listing on Butner is a first for the lower-priced western half of Cedar Hills. According to records in the Regional Multiple Listing Service, the highest list price ever recorded there was $679K in 2014. Located on Spring Lane just a block from the Butner new build, the record-holding property was built in 1962 in the Northwest Regional style. It has vaulted wood beam ceilings, a stone fireplace in the great room, over 3000 square feet, and a swimming pool and outdoor kitchen on the 0.8-acre lot. The property sold for just $4K under asking price at $675K, also a record high and an appreciation of 87.5 percent since its previous sale in 2003.

In fact, no other home in the western half of Cedar Hills has ever sold above the $500’s. Four other sellers have tried, as far back as 2007 and as recently as last August. As shown in the last column of the table, a remodeled ranch on Faircrest was relisted at $569K last month after 92 days on the market at $600K.

MLS No.	7095238	13089408	15202640	16091321
Street	Belvidire	Belvidire	Belvidire	Faircrest
SF	2808	3309	2420	1986
Lot size	0.5 acre	0.5 acre	0.52 acre	0.29 acre
Yr built	1955	1950	1957	1950
Condition	Updated	Original	Remodeled	Remodeled
List Price	649,900	640,000	639,000	600,000
Sale Price	520,000	512,000	579,400	Relisted @ 569,000
Market time	82 days	214 days	82 days	92 days @ 600,000
Yr sold	2007	2013	2015	Still active

This Faircrest ranch came on the market at $600K in Aug ’16 and was relisted at $569K last month

So what’s the lesson? Does the real estate mantra – “Buy the worst house in the best neighborhood” – apply? Though the housing recovery was still underway in 2014, the sellers of the Spring Ln property fared well with an 11-year return of almost 90 percent. And the pricey Lynnridge-Mayfield enclave has also seen strong appreciation – for homes not bought at the top of the market pre-recession and owned for several years or longer.

But at $327 per square foot, the new build on Butner is priced far above both the sale price record set in 2014 for west Cedar Hills ($221 per square foot), and the average ($244 per square foot) for homes sold since 2014 in the Lynnridge-Mayfield enclave of east Cedar Hills.

Unless there’s some sea change underway in the neighborhood market, it’s hard to imagine that the Butner property, grand though it may be, will sell at list price. It’s on my RMLS watchlist and I’ll report the sale price on my Facebook page once it closes.

And here’s a final word for readers who are not looking to buy or sell a million dollar home – in Cedar Hills or elsewhere. Having mined their vast data holdings, the CEO and Chief Economist of Zillow published this revisionist take on “buy the worst house in the best neighborhood” a couple of years ago.

Here’s what the data says: Buy a decent house in the right neighborhood. What’s the right neighborhood? It’s the most expensive one where you can afford a home that is not in the bottom 10 percent.